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SECTION 4: Contextual Description
4.0 From Information Highway to the WC Dirt-road.
"A few years back wearable computers were mere fiction. Today a number of working prototypes and commercial systems are available and companies like Boeing have successfully started to make use of this new technology. In the future we can expect much needed advances in wearable hardware technology (e.g., display and battery technology). Yet to a large extent the success of wearable computers will depend on advances in software technology." (Software Technologies for Wearable Computers, Gerd Kortuem, 1996)
As the unacknowledged child of fixed network and mobile technologies, WC has had a long and lonely childhood. We may trace the first hints WC conceptualization back in 1945, in the MIT article "As We May Think" by Vannevar Bush, through a device he terms "Memex" and describes as: "an enlarged intimate supplement to [the user's] memory". But it wasn't until Sony's launch of the Walkman® that wearable devices were considered for mass marketing--the first reported wearable computer was actually developed to predict roulette wheels; Ed Thorp and Claude Shannon, MIT, in 1966.
The future of WC may well be equally lonely. Indeed, the potential success of Wearables is entirely dependent on unstable and uncertain relationships between integrated suppliers of components, software, hardware and sister technologies like mobile phones, portable computers etc. What's more, the idea of Ubiquitous Computing, proposed by Mark Weiser (in the article The Computer for the 21st Century, Scientific American, September 1991) suggests that computers would be present in most everyday objects. As of today, this view may appear rather far-fetched, especially given the problems of securing and standardizing Internet technologies.
Consequently, WC is in for a bumpy ride. In this section, we will closely examine each 'bump'; to provide broad directions for subsequent chapters.
4.1 Key Factors Influencing WC
The design, implementation, commercialization and adoption of WC systems/products are subject to an array of external factors. We shall therefore draw two tables listing factors that may either boost or deter WC's introduction, at each stage of the development process.
4.11 Constraints on Development (Shorter Term)
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FACTOR
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DESCRIPTION |
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Resource Limitation
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WC is typically limited by its size, battery consumption and storage capacity. Although solid-state components are constantly evolving towards smaller, faster processors with better conductivity and heat-dissipation characteristics, WC in most cases involves a compromise with regards to available resources. Operating Systems like WindowsNT are programmed across so many layers of software that it effectively wastes valuable CPU time and disk space. The trend is towards ultra-thin, client-side, networked systems which instead of having a monolithic shell--as for instance traditional Linux--spanning the application level across the network, while retaining the core element--aka Kernel. |
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Missing Infrastruct-ure
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Despite (or for many reasons due to) great efforts to increase the bandwidth and speed of golbal networks, difficulties arise. First and foremost is security. Current protocols like IPv4, cannot cope with, for instance, denial-of-service attacks; the community is reluctant to move to higher security platforms. In addition to these issues, WAP is felt as the missing link between mobile computing and the internet, and it may rightfully be. However, the gap is still wide and calls for the IT version of the historical declaration whereby "servers are all created equal". |
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Lack of Knowledge in Interface Design |
As map 3.111 point out, the right side of WC is vast and uncharted territory. Shifting to non-traditional computing requires to "break away from 1960s technologies and paradigms" (National Research Council please see note). Of course, here, the existential question is: Is there a life after MS-Windows? Indeed a scary thought. Part 10 shall discuss what letter should be put in front UI, or "User Interface". |
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Lack of Design Tools for Software/ Hardware |
Again, there is a great lack of support for building "non-traditional" devices. The next most problematic factor is the co-existance of software and hardware. In many cases (confirmed by the release of Windows2000) software will pull hardware one notch higher. This lag creates an indecipherably complex situation where WC hardware is constantly outdated by fatter software. |
4.12 Constraints on Market Penetration (Longer Term)
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FACTORS |
IMPLEMENTATION |
COMMERCIALIZA-TION |
ADOPTION |
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Next Generation Mobile Phones & Broadband Networks |
This is a double-edged sword. Tel-cos are reacting to the diffusion of broadband networks, with varying degrees of enthusiasm. The amortization of heavy investments spells a certain hope to cash in on consumers. Strong competition could partially offsets that problem. |
The mobile industry is liekly to become both a strong partner and indirect competitor to WC firms. |
They may significantly slow down consumer acceptance of WC technologies, much like Minitel in France in the early 80s. |
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Advances and broad adoption of Desktop Computing
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Finding applications for WC is only matter of imagination. Xybernaut has understood it all too well, and provides solutions to every industry one may think of. |
Here, firms can't afford not to strongly differentiate the PC and WC environments. At this point, softer, and less precise approaches are needed. Marketing takes over pure Technological strategy |
Consumers and professionals alike could oversee the advantage of WC. They might support that PCs are both inexpensive and widespread and would only 'eat-up' on their private time. |
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Graphic User Interfaces
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For the time being, WC has to 'make up' with Windows-like interfaces. That implies bulky, non-optimized and resource hungry systems. Building GUIs upon easily customized and streamlined X-Windows environments could give birth to a generation of poorly compatible, hardware-dependent devices. |
Firms like Microsoft and Sun Microsystems are likely to exert strong pressure over small integrators. They may, at term become competitors in the market, and piggyback on the other firms' experience. |
Users preference and "addiction" to the Windows environments. They may not feel the need to adopt systems closer to the human senses. They may feel less secured with hands free interfaces, as suggested by the slow consumer penetration of Speech Recognition. |
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New Paradigm Associated with Intelligent User Interfaces
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Concerns were raised by Pattie Maes--renown MIT researcher--at the 1997 International Conference on the development of Intelligent User Interfaces. She questioned that intelligent agents should: -be understandable and modifiable/programmable by the user. -'explain' its behavior to the user -allow a degree of autonomy -not impose a new language. Such systems are, in many cases, beyond the 10-year time frame (see note). |
It may be difficult to make this technology a profitable investment under traditional business rules. Although we may envisage "brands" of intelligent agents, companies creating these "sentient" bots, would seek to preserve source-codes as long as possible. Consequently, this would limit the bots' "reproductive capacity"; a cross between Monsanto's GMOs and the Microsoft Office Assitant. |
Consumers may experience a loss of control (direct-manipulation paradigm) over their actions. Many of them would favor direct-manipulation of information, although now, system tasks are automatically handled by the OS--for instance Windows registery entries. |
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Price |
High margins of B-C applications could attract new companies into the market. Xybernaut's partners like Sony or Toshiba |
The key is marketing segmentation, the oldest trick in the book. That strategy is costly, as companies like P&G may testify. WC could come through multitudes of products. |
To end consumers, price is naturally important, depending on their profile. The proliferation of 'smart' devices may confuse consumers who don't fit into a particular, pre-determined marketing frame. |
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Privacy |
By
nature, WC is practically as close to humans as a pacemakers used
to stimulate cardiac muscles. |
Commercializing those systems is expected be highly regulated and restricted by the US governments--the concept of national security could be extensively claimed. |
Unless correctly treated privacy will likely become a barrier to wide-spread consumer adoption.
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4.13 WC is PEOPLE-WARE
Problems
with wearable computing
Wearable systems are well suited to
providing privacy and personalizations, but they tend to lack in
other areas:
Localized information: Just as smart rooms are
ill-suited for personalized information, wearable computer systems
have trouble maintaining localized information. For example, if
information about a single location gets updated then every wearable
needs to be given the new information. Furthermore, is it often
difficult for a wearable system to sense information beyond the
user's local area.
Localized
control: If a wearable is used to control a resource off the persons
body, such as a
stereo, big screen display, or air conditioner, it
is often much easier to design the system with the resource-specific
drivers in the device itself. When low-level control is left to the
wearable it tends to produce higher demands on the wearable's CPU and
wireless network and necessitates that the wearable have code to
control each kind of device that might be discovered.
Resource
management: Wearables are also not well suited to managing resources
among several people. When more than one wearable user wants to use
the same stereo, for example, often it is desirable to have a more
intelligent system than simply allowing the last request to take
precedence.
The
Challenge of Wearable Computer Design
Researchers must address
several challenges to make wearable computing effective. The device
should offer seamless integration of information processing tools
with existing work environments. To
accomplish this, the wearable
system must function naturally and unobtrusively so that users can
dedicate their attention to the task at hand without distractions
from the system. Conventional methods of interaction-keyboard, mouse,
joystick, monitor-all require some fixed physical relationship
between user and device that impedes the efficiency for a wearable
system.
User interface models.What are the appropriate metaphors
for providing mobile access to information-what is the next "desktop"
or "spreadsheet"? These metaphors typically take more than
a decade to develop: The desktop metaphor, for example, was conceived
in the early 1970s at Xerox PARC but required more than a decade to
become widely available to consumers. Extensive experimentation with
end-user applications is required. Several metaphors, each tailored
to a specific application or a specific information type, are
starting to emerge.
Input/output modalities. For decades,
computer science research has focused on modalities mimicking the
input/output capabilities of the human brain, but these are still not
accurate or easy to use. Many current modalities, for example,
require extensive training periods, and inaccuracies cause users to
become frustrated. Needed are easy-to-use input devices. For example,
field trials have demonstrated that the dial used on VuMan3 is very
effective in list-based applications. These new devices are starting
to appear commercially.
4.3 The WC Market.
"One solution to the problem of resource limitations is to make the wearable computer part of a distributed system. We see a wearable computer as a device through which the user gains access to a larger set of remote resources (data, programs, memory, CPU)." (Gerd Kortuem, Position Paper, Cf notes).
Industrial Infrastructure
Government Roles
Government policy will be concerned with possible safety and health hazards that maybe connected with using wearables. There are several areas of concerns. Firstly, the effects of wearing a powerful battery close to the
user's body, the hazards that arise if it leaks. There is also the issue of the 'private eye' the head mounted screen, what effects this can have on the user's eyesight especially after long periods of use. Safety issues are raised when the user may become so absorbed and distracted with the wearable, for example regulations will have to be implemented concerning
driving and using a wearable at the same time. On the other hand the government is supportive of wearables in the field of defense, several products have been developed and are being used by the US military and NASA Kennedy Space Centre which would have recieved governmental funding. Finally, government will play an important role in ensuring that the technology of wearables developed for defense will remain national property and confidential. Whilst no manufacturer of commercial wearables gains monopolistic control so that the market is open and competition will reduce
the prices of the technology.